Arena Card/Wildcard Value Math

Online Magic forum

Posted on Dec. 20, 2020, 9:50 a.m. by PIayswithFlRE

I'm enjoying the current cube draft, but dislike that it's phantom, so I started doing the math on what it would have to cost for the cube to be non-phantom, which necessitated working out the costs of individual cards.

Math:

Assumptions/bases for calculation

Draft pack contents:

• pack rare slot
• • 1 in 24 packs has a rare wild card
• • 1 in 24 packs has a mythic wild card
• • of the remaining rare/mythic slots, 1 in 8 is mythic
• pack uncommon slots (2)
• • 1 in 5 packs contains an uncommon wildcard
• pack common slots (5)
• • 1 in 3 packs contains a common wild card
• For simplicity, the wildcard progress wheels are synchronized
• A card of a given rarity is worth 3 times as much as a card of the rarity below it
• • based on vault progress for common -> uncommon
• • based on past vault progress for uncommon -> rare
• • averaging gems for fifth card and 1 in 5 wildcard progress wheels for rare -> mythic

To get (almost) everything to divide evenly when buying packs, we need 120 packs. Including wheel progress, that will yield:

Rarity	Card	Wildcard
Mythic	13.75	5 + 4
Rare	96.25	5 + 16
Uncommon	216	24 + 20
Common	560	40 + 0

With the assumptions above, each pack is then worth the equivalent of roughly 20.42 commons and 5.03 common wildcards.

What is unclear at this point is the relative value of the cards vs the wildcards.

Limited pack contents:

• .125 mythic
• .875 rare
• 3 uncommon
• 10 common

This is the equivalent of 30.25 commons

Limited packs from draft and sealed

To get the value of cards independent of wildcards, we have to turn to limited (draft and sealed) packs. And, to eliminate the value of skill, we assume all drafts and sealed go 0-3. Essentially, you mindlessly click the top left card for each pick in the draft and immediately concede once you have all your cards. To get down to just the value of the limited packs, we keep re-investing the gem rewards until all we have left is the draft packs and the pack rewards.

To get to 120 packs, you need to do 120 drafts, but, by reinvesting the rewards, we only have to pay for 112 of them:

• 112 0-3 drafts provides 5600 gems
• 7 0-3 drafts bought with profits leaves you with 700 gems
• 1 0-3 draft bought with profits + 50 gems you have leaves you with the same 50 gems

So, 560000 gold or 84000 gems gives you 360 draft packs plus 120 packs, so we subtract the effective cost of the packs (120000 gold or 24000 gems) value of the non-draft packs, leaving 440000 gold or 60000 gems buying us 360 draft packs, giving a value per pack of 1222.2 gold or 166.6 gems per pack, making each common worth roughly 5.5 gems or 40 gold.

Alternatively, to get to 120 pack rewards by doing sealed, you need to do 40 of them, but, reinvesting the rewards, you only pack for 36 of them.

• 36 0-3 sealed provides 7200 gems
• 3 0-3 sealed bought with profits leaves you with 1800 gems
• 1 0-3 draft bought with profits + 200 gems you have leaves you with the same 200 gems

So, 72000 gems gives you 240 draft packs plus 120 packs. Subtracting the cost of the rewards packs leaves 48000 gems buying 240 draft packs, for a value of 200 gems per pack, or roughly 6.5 gems per common.

Having done the math above, we have a number of possible values:

• Gem draft: 5.5 gems per common; 17.4 gems per common wildcard
• • multiplier of about 3.15
• Sealed: 6.5 gems per common; 13 gems per common wildcard
• • multiplier of about 2
• Gold draft: 40 gold per common; 35 gold per common wildcad
• • though, it seems incorrect to have the wild card be worth less
• Averaging gem draft and sealed: 6 gems per common; 15 gems per common wildcard
• • multiplier of 2.5
• • 6 gems, in the context of draft pricing (750 gems vs 5000 gold) is 40 gold, as per gold draft value

So, 6 gems per common and 15 per common wildcard seems to accurately represent a balance of the three means of calculating value.

What what would mean in practical terms is that the costs in gold for various things would be:

• common wildcard: 75-100
• • they'd probably charge 100
• uncommon wildcard: 225-300
• • they'd probably charge 300
• rare wildcard: 675-900
• • they'd probably charge 1000
• mythic wildcard: 2025-27000
• • they'd probably charge 3000
• non-phantom cube draft: 11250-15000
• • based on rarity distribution from the first list
• • say 2000 gems or 12500 gold with current ICR rewards and 2.5 times the gold rewards

I know they'll probably never do it, but the numbers seem reasonable to me; thoughts?

gatotempo says... #2

Yeah, I think Wotc should make it work. They don't have a reputation for being reasonable, though, but fingers crossed.

December 21, 2020 11:08 a.m.

Daveslab2022 says... #3

Cube drafts will always be phantom. That’s just how cubes are. Nobody is piecing out their cube every time they draft it lol. I know it’s online so it’s not like they actually lose cards, but that’s the entire point. Cube drafting gets boring and lame when people are using it to get cards they don’t have instead of actually building playable decks. The decks won’t be as powerful, which means the games won’t be as fun. Cube draft is all about big plays and weird interactions you never thought of. I went turn 3 Resplendent Angel into turn 4 Elspeth, Sun's Nemesisgaining some life and making an Angel.

It also alters how important you value certain cards. You’re going to feel forced into taking a certain number of mythics/rares, and being forced to pass some of the really good uncommons for your deck.

Just my two cents.

December 21, 2020 11:29 a.m.

Daveslab2022 says... #4

Also, I’m curious why you’re including wildcards into the draft pack. What is a draft pack? Like, the pack you open to draft? They don’t put wildcards in those, do they? I’ve drafted hundreds of times and never seen it.

December 21, 2020 11:33 a.m.

PIayswithFlRE says... #5

Those are good points about why cube draft should stay phantom. Can't really disagree with them; me having to spend some wildcards if I want to challenge a friend's cube deck with mine is a price worth paying to have the cube draft itself be more fun.

By the end, I was just curious what the approximate value of cards and wildcards should/would be.

To your last comment, I'm on mobile now, but I may need to reorganize things. I wasn't trying to say that you got wildcards in the draft packs (which, yes, are what I'm calling the packs you get in draft/sealed as opposed to the store). I just meant that, e.g. since the math says that a common in a draft pack is 5.5 gems, plugging that in to the 20.42 common card and 5.03 common wilds card-equivalent value you get in a store pack for 200 gems yields a value of 17.4 gems for each common wildcard.

December 21, 2020 4:09 p.m.